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Week 7 fantasy projections vs results: we graded 60 players, misses included

What happened in Week 7, in one table

Nobody’s number survives a five-sack day or a three-touchdown afternoon. Here are the ten widest gaps from the 60, five each way.

Gap = scored minus our number, full-PPR.

The ups: who blew past our number

Tony Pollard, Titans (+26.44). We had him at 10.06. He scored three times and finished at 36.5 in a 27-24 loss to Cleveland. That is the widest gap on the board, and it was not close.

Mason Taylor, Jets (+18.72). A 6.48 on our card, 25.2 by the final whistle in Miami’s 28-25 win. Tight ends with a low number can still have the week of their season.

Jameson Williams, Lions (+15.12). 10.98 projected, 26.1 scored in Detroit’s 20-17 win over Green Bay.

The downs: who fell through the floor

Bryce Young, Panthers (−15.60). 21.02 on our card. Tampa Bay sacked him five times, he threw two interceptions and lost a fumble, and he finished at 5.42 in a 43-13 loss.

Kenneth Walker III, Chiefs (−14.93). Our second-highest number in the set at 24.63. Seattle held him to 36 rushing yards and 9.7 points in a 20-3 Seahawks win.

Nico Collins, Texans (−12.66). Two catches on five targets for 6 yards: 2.6 points against our 15.26.

Who landed right on it

Three players finished within a quarter point of our number: Tyler Huntley (15.06 vs 15.12), Jaylen Warren (16.77 vs 16.7) and Jonathan Taylor (18.85 vs 19.0). Nine of the 60 landed within 1.5 points, and 16 within 3.

How Week 7 broke down by position

Quarterbacks landed closest to our numbers this week. Running backs swung the most. Typical gap is the median of the absolute gaps.

What this does and doesn’t tell you

• These are 60 players we chose to recap from 12 Sunday games, not every player in Week 7.
• One week is a small sample. A good week doesn’t prove an edge and a bad week doesn’t erase one.
• A number is a central estimate for one game. Touchdowns, sacks and game script can move a player 15 points either way, as this table shows.
• Box-score stats are unofficial until the league’s final stat correction.

That is the point of keeping receipts: our numbers were written down before kickoff, and the misses stay where you can see them. Each game’s full recap, with five players per game, is in Final Whistle.

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Full-PPR scoring used: 1 point per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 0.04 per passing yard, 6 per rushing or receiving touchdown, 4 per passing touchdown, minus 2 per interception or lost fumble, 2 per two-point conversion.

Sources: ProDraftStats desk; ESPN game summaries, cross-checked against nflverse player stats. Data: nflverse (CC BY 4.0), transformed. Not affiliated with the NFL. Projections are estimates, not guarantees. © 2026 ProDraftStats™.

FAQ

How did your Week 7 fantasy projections do? Of the 60 players we recapped from 12 Week 7 games, 32 scored above our pre-kickoff number and 28 below. The median gap was 6.7 full-PPR points, and 16 of 60 landed within 3 points.

What was the biggest Week 7 fantasy surprise? Tony Pollard. We had him at 10.06 and he scored 36.5 full-PPR points with three touchdowns, a gap of 26.44.

What was the biggest Week 7 fantasy bust in your numbers? Bryce Young: 21.02 on our card, 5.42 in the box score after five sacks and three turnovers.

When were these numbers made? Before the week started: our Week 7 table was written down on Tuesday, 2026-10-20, at 10:49 AM ET, two days before Thursday night’s kickoff.

Our numbers were written down Tue 2026-10-20 10:49 AM ET, before Week 7’s first kickoff. Results: ESPN box scores, cross-checked line by line against nflverse player stats. Covers the 12 Sunday games of Oct. 25; Monday night gets its own recap. Box-score stats are unofficial until the league’s final stat correction.