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His season average is lying to you about McBride

Why we price a top tight end under what he has averaged, and why it is not a sit call.

If your brother-in-law says Trey McBride averages 17.18 points a game, so anything less is an insult, he has the number right. But a season average is a record of what already happened, not a promise about Sunday. Our Week 8 number for McBride is 14.47. That is a price on one week, not a sit call, and one week can land well above or below it. Whether he belongs in your lineup depends on your other options and your matchup. What makes this worth reading is that we priced him under his average in all four weeks we have on file (W5 to W8). Is that a McBride story, or does the whole tight end card sit under its averages this week? The chart below shows the five players on our card. It cannot tell us why. Show it to the brother-in-law.

McBride’s number sat under his average in all four weeks we have

His season average is his points per game this season. In the four weeks of TE Mismatch card history we have (W5 to W8), our number came in under it every time.

Week 8 has the narrowest gap of the four and the highest projection. But his average has not held still: it went from 19.7 down to 17.3, up to 18.16, then down to 17.18. We don’t have his game-by-game scores in this data, so we won’t guess which games moved it. Four weeks is too few to call a trend.

That leaves a bigger question: is this about McBride, or about tight ends? Here is the full Week 8 card, each player against his own average.

Every gap on this card is negative, so this week the pattern is not specific to McBride. Five players is too few to say why. Only Brock Bowers (14.81) projects higher than McBride (14.47).

We don’t have game-by-game scores here, so we can’t say how a 0.34 gap compares with the spread of a single game. The card shows how close the two projections are, not which one to pick.

Why the number lands under his average

But why would we price a player below what he has actually averaged? Because a season average is a record of what already happened, and our number is a read of this one week. The two don’t have to agree, and we have not measured why they differ for McBride.

All five tight ends on the Week 8 card sit under their averages. We haven’t tested why, so we won’t guess.

Which means 14.47 is a price, not a sit call. It is a central estimate for one week, and we have no measured range for a single game, so one week can land well above or below it. Whether McBride is in your lineup depends on your other options and your matchup, including whether you are the favourite or the underdog. Our start/sit tool aims to maximise your chance of winning the matchup, not raw points. The choice is yours.

What we can’t say yet

Numbers recorded Fri Oct 23, 9:08 AM ET before kickoff, and not yet sealed as of our Saturday Oct 24 check. These are live desk numbers. Every pick is scored against what was written down before kickoff, misses included. We have no 2026 results, so nothing here says a pick hit or missed.

We have no rest-of-season projection for McBride, so we won’t invent one. The desk’s disagreement with ESPN stays grey until it is earned on scored weeks.

Send this to the league chat if someone is arguing about whether McBride’s number is “a downgrade.”

Source: ProDraftStats desk.