Published 2026-10-25 · Updated 2026-10-25 · By the ProDraftStats desk

Purdy’s season average is 22.33. Our Week 7 number is 20.56

Ten quarterbacks from our sealed Week 7 table: his season average, and the number we put on the record.

Brock Purdy averages 22.33 points this season. Our Week 7 number is 20.56. These are sealed Week 7 estimates, not Week 8 numbers.

Purdy averages 22.33. We wrote down 20.56.: 20.56 Our Week 7 number for Brock Purdy

If you roster Brock Purdy, his season average of 22.33 points a game and our Week 7 number of 20.56 are two different readings, and we put 20.56 on the record, written down before kickoff. It is a price on the player, not an instruction, and what you do with it is your call. One week’s score can land well above or below it. If someone in your league chat quotes a season average like it’s a promise, the gap between that average and our number is what this post is about. Ten quarterbacks in our Week 7 table show the same tension. This is the Week 7 table, frozen before kickoff. It is not Week 8.

Ten QBs, two numbers each

Every quarterback here carries two numbers: his season average (points per game this season) and our number for the week, the one we put on the record.

QB	Team	W7 opp	Season avg	Our number	Ours minus avg
Jared Goff	DET	GB	23.00	21.48	−1.52
Bryce Young	CAR	TB	22.09	21.02	−1.08
Caleb Williams	CHI	NE	20.49	20.65	+0.16
Brock Purdy	SF	@ATL	22.33	20.56	−1.77
Joe Burrow	CIN	@BAL	20.25	19.93	−0.32
Drake Maye	NE	@CHI	18.50	19.09	+0.59
Lamar Jackson	BAL	CIN	19.77	18.89	−0.88
Tyler Shough	NO	PIT	18.69	18.51	−0.18
Jordan Love	GB	@DET	18.39	18.39	0.00
Matthew Stafford	LA	@LV	17.64	18.31	+0.67

Jared Goff tops our list at 21.48, ahead of Bryce Young at 21.02. Purdy is fourth at 20.56.

Six QBs' season averages versus our W7 numbers: Purdy 22.33 to 20.56, Goff 23.00 to 21.48, Young 22.09 to 21.02, Jackson 19.77 to 18.89, Stafford 17.64 to 18.31, Maye 18.50 to 19.09. — Purdy and Goff carry the biggest cuts from their season averages, 1.77 and 1.52 points, while Stafford and Maye get small lifts. Source: ProDraftStats desk.

Goff slid from 23.00 to 21.48 and Purdy from 22.33 to 20.56, yet both stayed in the top four. A number under a player’s average is a trimmed projection, not a verdict on the player. At the other end, Stafford (+0.67) and Maye (+0.59) get small lifts over their averages, and Jordan Love sits exactly on his.

Two ways to misread the table

Two fans can read this table and reach opposite conclusions. One says Purdy has scored 22.33 a game, so our number must be wrong. The other says the number must know something, so the average must be stale. Both are known habits. The first is anchoring (clinging to the first number you saw). The second is automation bias (over-trusting an answer because a machine produced it). Neither number is the whole story, and one week can land well above or below either.

What we can’t say yet

These are Week 7 sealed numbers, not Week 8. Week 8 is a separate table and is not covered here.
It is a weekly table, a snapshot going into Week 7, not a full rest-of-season projection.
We have no scored 2026 results for these numbers yet, so we make no claim about whether any of them was close.
“Ours minus avg” compares our number with each player’s own season-to-date average. It does not compare against ESPN, consensus rankings or roster ownership.
Each number is a single point estimate with no interval.

Send this to whoever in your league chat treats a season average as a promise.

Source: ProDraftStats desk.

FAQ

Why is our Week 7 number for Brock Purdy lower than his season average?

His 22.33 is a record of games already played; our 20.56 is a read of Week 7, written down before kickoff. We haven't measured why the two differ, and a number under an average is not a sit call.

Who tops the Week 7 QB list?

Jared Goff is first at 21.48, then Bryce Young at 21.02. Purdy is fourth at 20.56. This is the sealed Week 7 table, not Week 8.

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