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Final Whistle · NFL Week 9 · Thursday Night Football · Published · By the ProDraftStats desk

Justice Hill ran 65 yards past our number

Jacksonville scored on its first drive and never trailed. Cam Little added four field goals in the rain. Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 33, Baltimore Ravens 10, Thursday night, Nov. 5, at M&T Bank Stadium.

We had Justice Hill at 6.90. He scored 18.20. His 65-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter was Baltimore’s only touchdown, and it came on nine carries for 85 yards, plus three catches. Zay Flowers went the other way: 5.30 against our 17.04. Of our eight biggest numbers on players who took the field, six came up short.

Our eight biggest numbers on players who took the field, plus Justice Hill, sorted from the biggest beat to the biggest miss. The ring is the number we sealed on Tuesday; the dot is the player’s full-PPR total from the box score; the line between them is the gap, written at the right. Green when he beat our number by more than 1.5 points, red when he fell more than 1.5 short. Narrated, captions burned in. Source: game box score, JAX 33 at BAL 10, Thu Nov 5, 2026.

What hit, what missed

Hit: Justice Hill. One long run changed his night. Nine carries, 85 yards, the 65-yard score and a 3-for-3 receiving line for 7 yards: 18.20, 11.30 past our number, the biggest gap in the game.

Missed: Zay Flowers. Six targets, three catches, 6 receiving yards, and 17 more on three carries: 5.30 against 17.04, 11.74 short. Baltimore threw 19 passes all night, and rookie Joe Fagnano, in his first NFL start, finished 10 of 18 for 60 yards with two interceptions.

Missed: Derrick Henry. Seventeen carries for 57 yards and no score: 5.58 against our 16.26. Tyler Huntley, at 14.98 on our Tuesday table, did not play.

Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence went 16 of 26 for 242 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions, 13.58 against our 18.46. The touchdown was a 50-yard strike to Parker Washington before the half; his two catches for 61 yards came in at 14.10, just above our 13.58. Jakobi Meyers (4 for 65, 10.50 against 10.00) also beat ours. Bhayshul Tuten scored from a yard out but ran for 29 yards on 12 carries, 8.90 against 13.58, while Chris Rodriguez Jr. punched in a 2-yard score of his own for 11.20 against 8.27. Tight end Nate Boerkircher turned two catches into 61 yards, 8.10 against 5.74.

Several players on our Tuesday table recorded no pass, rush or catch in this game, so they are not graded.

Every player we graded in this game

Players on our card with a number of 5.00 or more who recorded a pass, rush or target.

PlayerOur sealed numberBox scoreFull-PPRGap
Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB)18.4616/26, 242 pass yds, 1 TD, 0 INT; 1 car, -1 yds13.58−4.88
Zay Flowers (BAL WR)17.043 car, 17 yds; 3/6 rec-tgt, 6 yds5.30−11.74
Derrick Henry (BAL RB)16.261/1, -3 pass yds, 0 TD, 0 INT; 17 car, 57 yds5.58−10.68
Bhayshul Tuten (JAX RB)13.5812 car, 29 yds, 1 TD8.90−4.68
Parker Washington (JAX WR)13.582/7 rec-tgt, 61 yds, 1 TD14.10+0.52
Jakobi Meyers (JAX WR)10.004/6 rec-tgt, 65 yds10.50+0.50
Brenton Strange (JAX TE)9.002/2 rec-tgt, 22 yds4.20−4.80
Mark Andrews (BAL TE)8.342 car, 0 yds; 2/2 rec-tgt, 19 yds3.90−4.44
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (JAX RB)8.2710 car, 19 yds, 1 TD; 2/2 rec-tgt, 13 yds11.20+2.93
Rashod Bateman (BAL WR)7.771/2 rec-tgt, 6 yds1.60−6.17
Justice Hill (BAL RB)6.909 car, 85 yds, 1 TD; 3/3 rec-tgt, 7 yds18.20+11.30
Josh Cameron (JAX WR)6.891/1 rec-tgt, 6 yds1.60−5.29
Ameer Abdullah (JAX RB)6.827 car, 30 yds3.00−3.82
Matthew Hibner (BAL TE)6.111/2 rec-tgt, 5 yds1.50−4.61
Nate Boerkircher (JAX TE)5.742/3 rec-tgt, 61 yds8.10+2.36
LeQuint Allen Jr. (JAX RB)5.010/2 rec-tgt, 0 yds0.00−5.01

Box-score stats, unofficial until the league’s final stat correction. Full-PPR: 1 point per catch, 0.1 per rushing or receiving yard, 0.04 per passing yard, 6 per rushing or receiving touchdown, 4 per passing touchdown, minus 2 per interception or lost fumble, 2 per two-point conversion. We computed each line from the box score and matched it against a second, independent box score.

Our numbers: the sealed NFL Week 9 table, frozen Tue 2026-11-03 9:07 AM ET, before the week’s first kickoff. Box score: ESPN game summary and nflverse player stats, identical on every line above.

Your call

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