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Your deep-league stash averages 0.0. We project 4.01

Five deep names sit well above their own season averages on our Week 8 board. Here is what that does and doesn’t tell you.

Your deep-league bench has one open spot, and the waiver wire is a list of names with zeros next to them. Jackson Hawes is the cleanest example on this week’s board: his season average is 0.0 points per game, and our number for him in Week 8 is 4.01 in full-PPR. That puts him second on our list of players whose projection sits furthest above their own average, behind a Chicago quarterback you’ll meet below. Before you spend that spot, know what 4.01 is not: it is not points you can bank. Our number is higher than his average, and nothing in our data says why. It could be more work coming his way, or it could be a season so thin that a zero tells us almost nothing. Most of this list projects in the low single digits, so this is mainly a deep-league question. Read on for who else is on it, which names showed up last week too, and how to check usage without fooling yourself.

Five names sit 3.61 to 4.81 above their own averages

To see why a zero is slippery, you need all five side by side. Each comparison is a player against his own season, not against ESPN, a market or ownership. These are the Week 8 entries, written down Fri Oct 23 before kickoff:

Bagent, the Chicago quarterback, tops the list. Every number on it is under 9, and four of the five are under 5. Which means the useful question isn’t “how many points is this?” It’s “why does our number sit so far from his average?” These are single-week central estimates, so a real score can land well above or below any of them.

Why a near-zero average makes the board slippery

Here’s the catch: we can’t answer that question from this card. Our weekly number is our read of the week, not his season to date, so a player with a 0.0 average can still carry a few projected points.

But the card can’t tell you why our number sits there. Nothing here shows snap counts, targets, ownership, Week 8 injury statuses or opponents. A bigger role is one possible reason. Another is a near-empty season sample, since the card doesn’t show how many games sit behind each average. A 0.0 may mean he barely played. A gap measured against an average built on very few games could be partly an artifact of that thin sample. We haven’t measured how often that happens.

Because of that, the board sets a psychology trap called anchoring. One fan anchors on the 0.0 and dismisses the name. Another anchors on +4.01 and reads it as four startable points. Both treat the distance as a points number when it’s a question.

So here is how we’d use it in a deep league. Which of these names you carry is your call.

• Read it as a lead. A big distance from a near-zero average is a reason to check usage in your own sources. It is not a verdict.
• Know what a repeat means. Three names show up on last week’s sealed list of the biggest positive distances among startable players: Bagent at +5.09, Ogletree at +3.61 and Roush at +3.59. Their numbers landed close to last week’s. The repeat is not new evidence, and we haven’t measured whether repeats are closer to actual scores.
• Hawes and Whittington. They aren’t in that sealed top ten. We can’t say where they ranked.
• Note the Chicago cluster. Bagent and Roush both play for Chicago. The card doesn’t say why, so we won’t invent a reason.
• Check your own wire. The card can’t tell you who is still available in your league.
• Size the claim. A stash costs a bench spot, and the number behind it is a projection of about 4 points. It is not a promise of 4 more points than anyone you’d otherwise use.

What we can’t say yet

• These are live desk numbers, written Fri Oct 23 at 9:08 AM ET before kickoff, and not yet sealed as of Sat Oct 24.
• No Week 8 results exist, so nothing here has been scored.
• These are point projections with no interval shown, and the card doesn’t show games played, so a 0.0 may be a very small sample.
• No ownership, snap-count, injury or opponent data sits behind this board.

Send this to whoever in your league chat keeps a stash spot open and a spreadsheet closed.

Source: ProDraftStats desk.